Middlesbrough have enjoyed a fine run of form over the last eight or nine games, but there is a genuine concern about one element of their game and the statistics from the season so far back up that claim.
It has been well documented that the start Middlesbrough made to the Championship campaign was less than convincing. They did not record a single win in the opening seven games, even failing to overcome perennial strugglers Sheffield Wednesday. Scoring was a real problem, scoring just five times in the first seven fixtures. Whilst clean sheets were equally hard to come by, no clean sheets in the same amount of games, leaking 14 in the process. But Carrick called for calm despite the shaky start and true to form, better results followed.
Since then, Michael Carrick has managed to galvanise his troops and amass 22 points from a possible 27. A quite remarkable turnaround with the club now sitting just two points outside the play-offs after languishing at the foot of the table.
Boro’s number nine’s
We take a look at some of the statistics that might explain the struggles and successes that the side have experienced so far.
Boro are back to scoring plenty of goals after they found it difficult to get into their stride, but they have had to adapt to life in the Championship without prolific forwards like Chuba Akpom and Cameron Archer. The goal scoring burden has had to be shared across the team in what has been a slightly different approach.
Josh Coburn and Emannuel Latte Lath have taken on the mantle of the number nine position, but both are very much players who are progressing and learning their trade in a Boro shirt.
There can be no criticism in terms of application and effort. They are players with bags of potential who have turned in good performances and work hard for the team, but the conversion into goals scored stands at 3 goals and 2 goals in the league respectively for the two forwards. That return must surely improve if Boro are to compete with the top teams in the division.
Healthy contributions from attacking midfielders Greenwood, Crooks and McGree have helped, but another stat that makes for a worrying read is that according to FotMob, a statistics based website, Middlesbrough have the second highest amount of ‘Big chances missed’ with 30. Only Blackburn have missed more, with the Lancashire side missing 32 big chances.
Creating chances not the issue
Thankfully, it is not all bad news as far as statistics go. Middlesbrough have managed to create 35 ‘Big chances’, with only Leeds United managing to create more (36). With players like Riley McGree, Sam Greenwood, Isaiah Jones and Hayden Hackney, creativity is evidently not a problem. Converting those created chances though, is something Boro must continue to improve.
Other stats that tell a similar story of the side’s attacking potential include being in the top three for expected goals (xG) with 27.3 and also the top three for shots on target per match (5.8).
Individually, Middlesbrough also have the player with the most shots per 90 miniutes, with Marcus Forss-a player whose directness has been a big miss through injury-topping the list with 5.8, ahead of Ipswich’s Dane Scarlett and Leeds United’s Patrick Bamford.
Boro may rue missed opportunities
In matches that are decided by fine margins though, the pattern of chances created, expected goals and amount of shots per game not being converted into goals scored and consequently points won, could be a problem that effects the overall league position come the end of the season. It is an issue that sums up Boro’s campaign in many ways. Certainly in the early part of the season, they tended to dominate the vast majority of their encounters, but occasionally rued missed opportunities when they have been on top.
Thankfully for Boro fans, that has been rectified to a point in the last couple of months and they have found enough to win tight games. But do they have enough firepower at the top end of the pitch to ensure they take their chances when they come? They won’t always be afforded a hat full of opportunities to get the goals they need, especially against the better sides.
It will be up to the club’s recruitment team and Michael Carrick to decide whether a foray into the market is needed come January. Maybe they are happy with their forwards and their contribution overall and will be content to stick with the plan of trying to register goals from all areas of the team. Carrick has suggested previously that they won’t be in the hunt for another forward come January, but that could equally be a ploy to keep his strikers motivated and confident. Time will tell.