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Where Middlesbrough should be in 2024/25 Championship table based on expected points

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Middlesbrough are currently seventh in the 2024/25 Championship table after four games.

Boro kicked off their campaign with a home meeting against Luke Williams’ Swansea City on August 10th.

Middlesbrough came out on top at the Riverside Stadium, securing a 1-0 win, which was their first on an opening weekend for 10 years.

Michael Carrick then took his side to Pride Park where he watched Isaiah Jones gift Derby County a 1-0 win thanks to a sloppy backpass.

Boro’s struggles against the ‘weaker’ sides in the Championship continued in game week three when they were held to a 2-2 draw by Portsmouth on home soil.

However, the Reds finally got back to winning ways on August 31st when an own goal and Matt Clarke header saw Middlesbrough beat Cardiff City 2-0.

Carrick should be pleased with how his side have started the campaign but they could be higher in the Championship table.

Middlesbrough v Portsmouth - Sky Bet Championship
Photo by MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Where Middlesbrough should be in 2024/25 Championship table

Middlesbrough are currently five points off first-place Sunderland after four games and three points adrift of second.

It is not a terrible position to be in but with a tough run of Championship fixtures on the horizon, Carrick may have been hoping to be slighter closer to the summit at this stage.

And had Middlesbrough managed to actually accumulate their expected points total, they would in fact be much higher in the table.

Opta have released a table showing every Championship side’s actual and expected points totals.

Sunderland maintain top spot with an expected 9.3 points compared to their actual 12 but Boro are not far behind them with an expected points total of 8.7 putting them in second place.

The rest of the top six is made up of Leeds United, Millwall, Sheffield United and Luton Town.

Why are Middlesbrough underperforming in the Championship

While Boro should be pleased with their expected points total compared to the rest of the division, it does raise questions as to why Carrick’s side are currently five places lower than they should be.

Defensive errors have cost Middlesbrough so far this campaign, with Jones, Lukas Engel and Seny Dieng all giving away goals in their opening four fixtures.

Another key issue the Teessiders have had this season is their inability to finish off chances.

Middlesbrough dominate the majority of the games they play and create plenty of chances, including against Derby when they managed 20 shots on goal.

However, there has been a lack of killer instinct in their forward line this term and Boro are not putting away enough opportunities.

The arrivals of Tommy Conway, Micah Hamilton, Delano Burgzorg and Ben Doak over the summer have given Carrick plenty of exciting attacking options to choose from but he is yet to find the right front four.

Should Boro continue struggling on the goals front, it may greatly impact their ability to secure promotion in 2024/25.