There is no doubt that the story of Josh Coburn’s contribution so far this season is as refreshing as it is welcome.
The young Richmond forward was extremely close to joining Plymouth Argyle on loan this summer, but instead, he found himself scoring twice against them in his last outing, in what was his ninth league start for Middlesbrough in a row.
However pleasing that is, and however desperate the 20-year-old is for the run to continue, is there a danger that Middlesbrough could be over-utilising him over the course of the season? Michael Carrick mentioned in his recent press conference the need to be careful with Coburn and manage the expectations. That becomes even more pertinent when you consider that Emannuel Latte Lath is the only other specialist number nine available.
Two strikers have different qualities
The general consensus was that Carrick would alternate between the two forwards this season, although he did intimate that there are others at the club like Matt Crooks who can play a more advanced role. The two main strikers both offer very different qualities. It may still be the case that both are rotated regularly moving forward, but Coburn’s performances of late have been impressive enough to warrant a run of consecutive games.
That may not seem like a problem to some, it offers continuity and gives the young striker an opportunity to gain some momentum and grow in confidence. However, the way that he plays; up against the centre-backs, tussling for every ball, contesting every header and running the channels with intelligent movement, there is a possibility that he could end up jaded as the campaign progresses.
Carrick has tried to inject pace into the side late on in games by replacing Josh with Latte Lath. It is a perfect compliment in terms of style, with Coburn tiring the defenders and giving them plenty to think about physically, with Latte Lath then coming on and taking advantage of the situation.
It would seem though, that Carrick is reluctant to start Latte Lath ahead of Coburn, and the statistics could explain one or two reasons why.
Coburn has scored 3 and picked up one assist in all competitions, with Latte Lath bagging 4 goals overall. But it is some of the other statistics that explain better the selection-poser faced by Carrick.
The key statistics
Possession and control are strong characteristics of this Middlesbrough side. It is very rare that the Teessiders are second best when it comes to percentage possession stats. They play on average 505 short passes per game. A key element of that strategy, is ensuring that when the ball is played further up the pitch, it is retained. Josh is much more adept at keeping hold of the ball and keeping the phase of play going.
The stats on the WhoScored website show that on average, Josh Coburn has a pass success percentage of 80.1%. Emannuel Latte Lath is down at 72.1% for the same category. Aerial duels, Coburn is in front with an average of 1.5 duels won, with Latte Lath only winning 0.6 per game.
Latte Lath does however have more shots per game, with the Ivorian having 2.3 shots per game, against Coburn’s 1.3.
The fact that Josh Coburn has started in the last nine league games, does not necessarily mean he is a better player, but it would suggest that he is better suited to the style Michael Carrick wants to play.
Expectation on young shoulders
With the Boro boss insisting that the club are not going to be in the market for a forward in January, it would surely be sensible to protect Coburn by managing his game load sensibly. Not just from a fatigue perspective, but in terms of expectation on a young man’s shoulders too, especially given that he is from the area. Interestingly, Coburn wears number 19, the number once worn by one of Boro’s most famous academy players, Stewart Downing.
I am sure that Carrick and his coaching team are only too aware of the pitfalls of sticking him in every single week, and so far the club have done a good job in ensuring he is not overwhelmed with the pressure of scoring all of the team’s goals. However, knowing strikers as we do, they will put pressure on themselves irrespective.
Hopefully the burden of scoring goals will continue to be shared across the whole group and with the help of Latte Lath, Josh Coburn will continue to flourish at his hometown club. You can see the towering, fresh-faced striker is desperate to do well, we just need the club to nurture that progression carefully.